Respiratory season (influenza, COVID-19, RSV)

Pathogen: Seasonal influenza, SARS-CoV-2, RSV · Region: Worldwide · Status: watch · Attention: high · Updated 19 Oct, 09:15 UTC

Should I be worried? · Pathogen library: Seasonal influenza, SARS-CoV-2, RSV

Official and media figures describe the same people from different vantage points and are never added together.

Global respiratory-virus activity is moving into the northern hemisphere winter pattern, but the official picture retrieved for this update is still mostly one of early seasonal increases rather than a clear surge. The strongest current official signal in the last 7 days is from the United Kingdom: UKHSA reported on 2026-10-08 that influenza activity had risen to a 6.5% positivity rate, remained at baseline levels, but was higher than the same period in the previous four years; COVID-19 positivity also rose to 9.1% while remaining low, and RSV stayed at baseline with very low circulation. Media and other non-official coverage retrieved here emphasize an “early flu season,” including a Japan item saying influenza cases were rising after an early start, but the retrieved media items did not provide verified figures. WHO’s latest global documents available in this session are older than the 7-day window, but still frame the background: seasonal influenza increased globally in late 2025 while remaining within expected seasonal ranges, and WHO’s May 2025 COVID-19 global update said SARS-CoV-2 activity had risen again in several WHO regions, with surveillance and hospitalization reporting still limited. The main uncertainties are whether early northern-hemisphere flu signals broaden across more countries, whether drifted influenza A(H1N1) viruses spread widely enough to affect vaccine performance, whether newer SARS-CoV-2 lineages change transmission or severity in practice, and whether RSV remains delayed or rises later in the season.

This remains a high-attention global seasonal watch because the pathogens spread efficiently between people, activity is visible in multiple regions, and official surveillance already shows early seasonal increases in some countries. The main moderating factors are that current official reports retrieved here still describe low or baseline levels in key settings and that vaccines, surveillance and some treatments exist, even though global coverage and reporting remain uneven.

Situation as of 14 Oct 2026

Official

In the official material retrieved for this update, authorities are describing early seasonal movement rather than a major global deterioration. UKHSA said on 2026-10-08 that flu was increasing but still at baseline levels, COVID-19 was increasing but still low, and RSV remained at baseline with very low circulation. WHO’s latest global background documents available here are older, but they remain relevant: WHO said seasonal influenza activity had increased globally in late 2025 while staying within expected seasonal ranges overall, and WHO’s May 2025 COVID-19 update said global SARS-CoV-2 activity had increased again, with the global public-health risk still assessed as high but with limited surveillance and limited hospitalization reporting in some regions.

Media, unverified

The media and other non-official items retrieved in this session put more emphasis on an 'early flu season' and on variant names. A Japan item reported rising influenza cases after an early start to the season, and forum-style coverage in the UK also focused on whether the flu season is starting early. The retrieved media items did not provide verified global figures.

Control measures

Current countermeasures in the retrieved sources are seasonal vaccination campaigns, weekly respiratory-virus surveillance, laboratory testing and sequencing, and public advice to eligible groups to get vaccinated. WHO advises Member States to keep a risk-based, integrated COVID-19 management approach, and UKHSA is running weekly winter respiratory surveillance covering flu, COVID-19 and RSV.

Timeline

• 28 May 2025 · WHO published a global COVID-19 update saying SARS-CoV-2 activity had increased since mid-February 2025, with sentinel positivity reaching 11% and NB.1.8.1 increasing among reported sequences.
• 10 Dec 2025 · WHO published a global seasonal influenza update saying activity had increased in recent months but remained within expected seasonal ranges overall, with influenza A(H3N2) predominant in many places.
• 2 Oct 2026 · A Japan media item reported influenza cases rising after an early start to the season, reinforcing concerns about an early northern-hemisphere flu pattern.
• 8 Oct 2026 · UKHSA said influenza activity in week 40 had increased but remained at baseline levels, with flu positivity at 6.5% versus 5% the previous week; COVID-19 positivity rose to 9.1% from 7.9%, while RSV remained at baseline with very low circulation.

Latest reports

1. 16 Oct 2026 · whmp.com · Media, unverified
   When is it too late to get a flu shot ? | WHMP 101 . 5 / 1400 AM
2. 15 Oct 2026 · comoxvalleyrecord.com · Media, unverified
   COLUMN : B . C . flu and COVID vaccine rollout is too little , too late
3. 15 Oct 2026 · wbng.com · Media, unverified
   Health experts urge older adults to get flu vaccine ahead of season
4. 9 Oct 2026 · Reddit · r/unitedkingdom · Media, unverified
   Are we seeing an early flu season? What we know so far about this year's strains
5. 8 Oct 2026 · UK Health Security Agency · Official
   Flu levels low at start of season but higher than previous 4 years
6. 6 Oct 2026 · gov.uk · Media, unverified
   Official Statistics: National flu and COVID-19 surveillance report, week 21 report: data to week 20 (data up to 23 May 2027)
7. 2 Oct 2026 · nippon.com · Media, unverified
   Influenza Cases Rising in Japan After Early Start to Season